If you’ve been paying attention to the markets, you’ve seen the panic.
The stock market is falling. Gold is surging. Volatility spiked.
Real Talk: This is nothing out of the ordinary.
We’ve had seven daily declines of 1% or more in 2025 — but let’s put that in perspective.
Since 1928, the average year has 29 such declines.
That means, as an investor, you should expect plenty more days like today. It’s part of the game.
If you’re investing for the long run, you don’t let one bad day shake you.
There’s a reason we keep things simple — because simple systems, executed with discipline, beat complexity every time.
Elegant simplicity comes after mastering complexity.
That’s why at American Prosperity, we invest like business owners, not traders chasing short-term trends.
We don’t treat stocks like lottery tickets.
Instead, we view them for what they really are: pieces of a business. And when you see stocks that way, the path to success becomes clear.
Your Formula for Success
Before we invest in any company, it has to pass four filters:
✅ An Industry with a Tailwind — We look for businesses positioned in sectors that are growing, not shrinking.
✅ Run by an Outstanding CEO — A great leader makes all the difference in driving long-term success.
✅ A Strong Balance Sheet — The company must have the financial strength to weather downturns and keep growing.
✅ Trading at a Bargain Price — Buying great businesses at the right price is what separates winning investments from losing ones.
That’s it.
No macro predictions. No guessing what the Fed will do next or how long tariffs will be in place. Just finding great businesses at great prices.
Why Macro Doesn’t Matter
If you want proof, listen to Warren Buffett.
At the 2012 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett made it crystal clear how he and Charlie Munger invest:
“To my memory, in fifty-three years, I don’t think Charlie and I have ever had a discussion about buying a stock or a business or selling a stock or a business where we’ve talked about macro affairs.”
Think about that. In over 50 years, they have NEVER made an investment decision based on trade wars, interest rates or the Federal Reserve’s actions.
Instead, they do one thing: buy great businesses at great prices and hold them for the long haul.
That’s how $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1965 is now worth over $500 million.
No panic selling. No overcomplicating things. Just common sense investing.
Simple, Smart and Proven: How to Pick Winners
Using this approach, I recommended Arista Networks (ANET) — a company that builds the networking hardware that keeps data centers connected, allowing AI models to process massive amounts of information.
We added it in March 2020, right at the bottom of the COVID bear market.
We didn’t need to predict GDP growth or inflation rates. All we had to ask was one simple question:
Will there be more or fewer data centers over the next five years?
The answer was obvious — tons more.
So, we recommended it. That was the simple part. The not-so-easy part? Holding the stock through Mr. Market’s ups and downs.
But we did. And we’ve been rewarded with a massive gain up more than 750%
Another example? Deere & Co. (DE).
This company has been around for nearly 200 years and dominates the market for tractors and combines.
Once it passed our four filters, we asked another simple question:
Will the world need more or less food over the next decade?
Again, the answer was obvious — more.
So, we recommended it in December 2023 at a bargain price.
Since then, Deere has been swimming upstream in a down cycle. Sales have dipped as expected, but the long-term fundamentals are rock solid.
Because we bought at the right price, the stock is already up in the double digits, even in a challenging environment.
The Bottom Line: Simple Works
Don’t chase headlines. Don’t get caught up in short-term fear.
Instead, follow a simple, disciplined approach — one that’s helped us pick winners like Arista Networks and Deere while ignoring all the noise.
That’s how real wealth is built — by sticking to timeless investing principles and letting great businesses do the heavy lifting.
Regards,
Charles Mizrahi
Founder, Alpha Investor
