Tariffs, Powell, and Panic: Why We Stick to the Plan When Headlines Heat Up

It’s been only three weeks since President Trump stood in the White House Rose Garden and declared April 2, 2025, as “Liberation Day.”

He unveiled a sweeping trade policy aimed at “re-Americanizing” U.S. manufacturing, including aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports — with some as high as 145%.

It was bold. It was loud. And it lit a match under global markets.

Then came the next spark: President Trump took direct aim at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of dragging his feet on lowering interest rates, just when, in Trump’s view, the economy needed it most.

Now we had a full-blown political firestorm — tariffs, central bank tension, and a president in campaign mode.

Like clockwork, the media went into overdrive.

Words like “crisis,” “collapse,” and “global economic shockwave” flashed across every screen.

TV pundits scrambled to make predictions.

Markets wobbled. And investors, once again, found themselves gripped by fear.

But here’s what most people miss…

This isn’t the first time the market’s been rattled by a political announcement — and it won’t be the last.

Over the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has pulled back, and volatility has increased sharply.

Stocks across nearly every sector have taken a hit. It didn’t matter if a business had zero exposure to China. If it traded on a stock exchange, it likely got caught in the selling.

That’s Mr. Market for you — swinging wildly between fear and greed, often ignoring common sense along the way.

But while the headlines have changed, our playbook hasn’t.

Let’s be clear: We don’t make investment decisions based on short-term news. We never have — and we never will.

The real secret to long-term success in the market isn’t predicting what happens next week, next month, or even next year.

It’s owning great businesses — and giving them time to grow and compound.

Take a look at our portfolio. Many of our companies are barely touched by tariffs.

Yet even these rock-solid businesses saw their stock prices fall. Not because their fundamentals changed, but because fear took over.

That’s the opportunity.

Step back from the noise, and the bigger picture becomes clear:

Yes, we’re in a period of adjustment. Tariffs bring friction. Supply chains will shift. Certain sectors may feel pressure in the short run.

But here’s what matters: long-term earnings power. And the companies we own continue to deliver, quarter after quarter.

I totally get it… No one likes seeing red on their screen or their account balance drop.

But reacting emotionally is the surest way to lock in losses and miss out on the rebound that always follows.

Volatility isn’t a flaw in the system. It’s the price we pay for long-term outperformance.

You can’t expect double-digit returns without enduring the occasional sell-off. The key is to keep your cool while others are losing theirs.

Because here’s what history shows us, time and time again:

We’re not just hopeful — we’re prepared.

We already own the businesses that are best positioned to lead in a world that values resilience, supply chain independence, and domestic innovation.

And we’re ready to take advantage of short-term mispricing caused by fear, not facts.

So stay strong, stay patient, and stay the course.

While the headlines may change … the long-term truth remains the same: Owning outstanding businesses, bought at great prices and held for the long run, remains the single best way to build lasting wealth.

Better days are ahead. And when they arrive, we’ll be exactly where we need to be — with both hands on the wheel, eyes on the road, and the best businesses in the world riding with us.

Because when you zoom out and look at the big picture, one thing stands above all the noise…

If you want to build real wealth over time, there’s one asset class that stands head and shoulders above the rest: stocks.

Not gold. Not bonds. Not cash under the mattress.

Stocks.

The way to build long-term wealth is by owning pieces of great businesses.

Because that’s what a stock is — a piece of a business. Not a lottery ticket. Not a guess.

When you buy a stock, you become a part-owner in a real, operating company. You share in its profits. And if the business grows, your investment grows with it.

Here’s the best part: most of the companies we invest in are tied to the broader U.S. economy. And when the economy grows — when GDP rises — these businesses benefit.

That means owning a diversified portfolio of stocks is one of the simplest and most effective ways to participate in America’s long-term growth.

You’re not just parking your money. You’re putting it to work in the same engine that has driven U.S. prosperity for over two centuries.

Think of the companies that have global brands such as Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft.

These are companies that grew alongside the American economy and helped shape it. These companies are now worth more than $1 trillion. When you invest in them, you benefit from their productivity, innovation, and resilience.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at Wharton and author of Stocks for the Long Run, did the research. From 1802 to 2021 — more than 200 years — stocks returned an average of 6.9% annually after inflation.

Source: Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, Sixth Edition, 2023.

Compare that to:

That means $1 invested in stocks in 1802 grew to over $2 million by 2021. The same dollar in gold? A little over $4.

Why?

Because when you own stocks, you own a share of a real business. You’re not just betting on price. You’re buying into innovation, growth, productivity, and the compounding of profits year after year.

Charlie Munger, Buffett’s longtime partner, said: “The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

That’s why long-term investing works. It lets compounding do its job. You hold through the ups and downs. And over time, your money works harder for you than you worked to earn it.

Now, that’s not to say stocks don’t fall — they do, and sometimes hard.

During the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, the market plunged over 50%.

In 2020, the market fell nearly 35% in just over a month.

But each time, it bounced back and reached new highs.

Why? Because beneath the short-term volatility, American businesses keep growing.

Smart, motivated people lead the companies you invest in. They create value. They serve customers. They adapt. And over time, they become more profitable.

And as a shareholder, you share in that growth.

Buffett said: “Productivity will increase, and you will do well. American business will do fine over time. And if you own a cross-section of it and don’t get too excited, you’ll do fine, too.”

And that’s what most people forget.

They focus on the daily headlines: inflation, interest rates, elections, trade wars. There’s always something. But those things pass. What lasts is the power of compounding and the steady march of economic growth.

Take a long-term view and look back over history. The U.S. stock market has weathered world wars, depressions, bubbles, and crashes. And through it all, the market continued to trend higher because the underlying businesses kept growing.

Owning stocks gives you a front-row seat to that growth. You’re not lending money like a bondholder. You’re not storing value like with gold. You’re participating in the wealth creation of the modern economy.

Stocks also offer something else that many investors overlook: dividends.

Some of the companies in our portfolio, such as Nestlé, Honeywell, and Lockheed Martin, pay part of their profits directly to shareholders through dividends.

Reinvest those dividends into more shares, and over time, your total return grows even faster.

And here’s another edge: stocks are liquid. You can buy or sell them at any time. They’re accessible. You don’t need a million dollars to get started. With just a few hundred dollars, you can own a piece of the world’s best companies.

Now, some people say, “What if the market crashes?” That’s a valid concern — and one worth addressing.

However, if your timeline is long enough — 10, 20, 30 years — the crashes become blips. Temporary detours on a road that trends upward.

The key is to stay disciplined. Keep investing regularly. Don’t try to time the market. Because, as Buffett says, time in the market beats timing the market.

You don’t need to find the next Amazon. You don’t need to jump in and out of trades. You just need to buy great companies, hold them for the long run, and let compounding do what it does best.

So if your goal is to grow your money steadily and smartly over time, the choice is clear.

Own stocks. Hold them. Let compounding do the heavy lifting.

And most importantly — be patient. Because the long game always wins.

Take a close look at this chart. It tells you everything you need to know about how wealth is built in the stock market.

It shows the S&P 500’s annual returns going back to 1980 (in gray bars), and the most significant drop the market experienced during each of those years (in red dots).

You’ll notice that in 34 out of the last 45 years, the market finished the year up, even though, on average, it fell about 14% at some point during the year.

Nearly every year, the market drops. Sometimes 10%, 20%, or even more. Yet, in most years, it still ends in the green.

What does that tell us? Simple. Volatility isn’t a problem. It’s the price of admission.

If you want the long-term rewards the stock market offers — 8%, 10%, even 12% annual returns — you have to be willing to sit through the occasional storm.

Think of it this way…

Warren Buffett summed it up best.

He said: “Imagine you had a crazy neighbor who shouted a price at you for your farm every single day. Some days, he yells out a sky-high number. On other days, he offers you peanuts.”

If you’re smart, you’d ignore him most of the time. Maybe you’d buy more land when the price was too low. Maybe you’d sell if the price were ridiculous. But otherwise? You’d keep farming.

That’s exactly how you should treat the stock market.

But when you own stocks, you get a price quote every second. That’s both a blessing and a curse.

Most days, the best move is to do absolutely nothing. But too many investors get distracted by all the noise — the flashing screens, the panicked headlines, the TV “experts.” They feel like they have to do something, and that’s when mistakes happen.

They turn what should be an advantage — the ability to buy or sell whenever they want — into a curse.

The simple fact is that the way to win in the stock market is the same as how to win on the farm: own great assets, ignore the noise, and let time do the heavy lifting.

Yes, volatility will always be there, and stocks will fall. Sometimes by a little. Sometimes by a lot. That’s normal. That’s expected. Because it’s the price we pay for the chance to build lasting wealth, and for those who keep their cool, it’s worth every penny.

And if you understand that, you can use it to your advantage by buying shares of great businesses when they are on sale.

Take a look at this chart. What you’re seeing is over a century of fear, panic, and doom — and one of the greatest stories of wealth creation in human history.

This is the growth of $1, going back more than 150 years. It’s been through wars, recessions, assassinations, pandemics, oil shocks, crashes, and everything in between. If you had invested $1 in U.S. stocks back in 1871, it would be worth about $28,900 today — even after accounting for inflation.

Real Talk: Every few years, there’s another crisis. And every time, it feels like this one — this time — is the big one. The one that’s going to change everything.

Let’s rewind.

The 1929 market crash and the Great Depression that followed wiped out fortunes and scarred a generation. From 1929 to the mid-1930s, the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value. People thought capitalism had failed.

Then came World War II — Germany invades France, the world is on fire. The future looked bleak.

And yet, after the war ended, the market rose.

Fast-forward a bit. In the ’60s, JFK is assassinated. Then the Vietnam War began.

The ‘70s? The Arab oil embargo caused gas prices to skyrocket. Inflation runs wild. Watergate shakes trust in government. Another recession hits.

In 1987, the market dropped 22% in a single day. Black Monday. Investors are terrified.

The dot-com bubble burst in 2000.

In 2008, the financial system almost collapsed. Major banks failed. People lost homes, jobs, and retirement savings. And once again, headlines screamed, “This time is different.”

And then … stocks rise again.

In 2020, COVID shut down the global economy. The market crashed 34% in just weeks. Businesses were closed. Cities were empty. Fear was everywhere.

And yet, in just a few months, the market recovered. In a few years, it hit new highs.

Here’s what I want you to see: The chart doesn’t move in a straight line. It zigs, it zags. There are pullbacks, crashes, and collapses.

But over time? It rises.

Every single crisis you see on this chart felt like the end of the world when it was happening. But the world didn’t end. Businesses kept producing. People kept working. The economy adjusted. And the stock market moved higher.

Because when you buy a stock, you’re not buying a ticker symbol. You’re buying a piece of a business. And great businesses figure out how to survive, adapt, and grow — even in the hardest times.

This crisis is normal. Volatility is normal. Fear is normal.

What separates successful investors from the rest isn’t their ability to predict crises. They can sit through them without panicking.

Think about it — if you sold at the bottom in 2009, you didn’t just lock in your losses … you missed out on one of the greatest bull markets ever, where your money could’ve grown more than 8X.

If you sold in March 2020, you missed an opportunity to grow your money by 2.4X over the next five years.

That’s because the patient investors — investors-the ones who stayed the course, tuned out the panic, and held on—came out ahead. Every time.

As Warren Buffett says, “The market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

And here’s the most important lesson: The future will have more crises. There will be wars, recessions, pandemics, crashes, and fear. You can count on it.

But if history is any guide — and it’s the best one we’ve got — the market will keep climbing over the long term.

Let me share something that might surprise you: You don’t need a Ph.D. or Wall Street experience to do well in the stock market.

You don’t need to trade all day, understand every new tech trend, or time the market perfectly. In fact, trying to do all that is how most people lose money.

The biggest mistake investors make? They think they have to be smarter, faster, or luckier than everyone else. But that’s a game you can’t win. Because the market doesn’t reward IQ points or clever tricks, it rewards discipline and patience.

If you want to win, you’ve got to know your limits and stick to a simple game plan.

When we look at a potential investment, we don’t need a complex model or a 100-page analyst report.

We ask one simple question:

Will demand for this company’s products or services be materially higher over the next five to ten years?

That’s it.

We don’t need to know every opportunity in the market. We just need to deeply understand the handful of great businesses we own. We keep it simple and stick with what we know.

In most great businesses, there’s usually one key variable that drives the whole operation.

For example:

Based on our research, the answer is a resounding YES. And when the answer is yes — and the price is right — we take action.

Simple, powerful, and built for results. We find those businesses through the Alpha-4 Approach.

The Alpha-4 Approach is built on four time-tested principles designed to help everyday investors — not hedge fund managers or day traders — grow their wealth steadily over time.

Let me walk you through it:

Own outstanding businesses. We only invest in companies in industries with tailwinds, run by exceptional CEOs, that have strong financials.

These are the types of businesses that have real competitive advantages. These are the types of businesses that make money in good times and bad. You don’t need a hundred of them — just a few great ones.

We only buy when the price is right. Even the best business can be a lousy investment if you pay too much. That’s why we wait patiently for the market to hand us a good deal — we don’t chase stocks, we let them come to us.

We’re not flipping stocks like pancakes. We buy great businesses and hold them for years — sometimes decades — because that’s how compounding works. Time is your greatest ally in the market, if you give it the chance.

The hardest part for most investors? Blocking out the noise. The talking heads, the scary headlines, the bold predictions — most of it’s not just useless, it’s dangerous. It stirs up fear and leads to bad decisions.

Instead, we focus on what actually matters: the fundamentals of the business, not forecasts or fads.

These days, it’s easy to get sucked into get-rich-quick schemes. You’ve probably seen the ads: “Double your money in 10 days!” “AI stock that could 100X!”

When someone promises fast profits, your answer should be even faster: “No thanks.”

That’s not investing — that’s gambling. And like any casino, the house always wins.

In over 40 years on Wall Street, I’ve learned that slow, steady, and having discipline wins. It’s not flashy. It won’t make headlines. But it works. And in the end, that’s all that matters.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: trying to predict the market is a waste of time, and it’s dangerous.

Every time I hear someone on TV making bold predictions — calling the top, warning of a crash, or giving “urgent” advice — I think of what Warren Buffett said, quoting Mickey Mantle:

“You don’t know how easy this game is until you get into that broadcasting booth.”

It’s easy to talk. It’s a whole different game to invest wisely.

So forget the forecasts. Forget trying to time the next move.

Instead, focus on what you can control: buying outstanding businesses at great prices, holding them patiently, and tuning out the noise.

That’s it.

You’ll never see headlines about investors who quietly compound their wealth year after year. But that’s where the real success happens.

No one wrote front-page stories about Warren Buffett in the 1950s or 1960s. But while others chased hot tips and market trends, Buffett stuck to the basics — and built a fortune.

A $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett took over management on May 10, 1965 — almost 60 years ago, would be worth more than $400 million today.

My point is that you don’t need to swing for the fences.

Just keep your investments moving higher at a steady and consistent pace.

Not trying to hit it out of the park by taking huge risks.

That’s how you build real wealth.

And one more thing…

A self-made crisis can be fixed.

Yes, there’s noise coming out of Washington — tariffs, political grandstanding, and short-term thinking. But while the headlines churn, America’s businesses keep delivering.

No other country comes close to matching our ability to innovate, produce, and scale.

From world-class goods to cutting-edge services, American businesses keep delivering — quarter after quarter, year after year.

Because headlines don’t drive the American economy — it’s powered by people who build, sell, and serve every single day.

To achieve real wealth, you don’t need to outguess the market.

You just need to own a handful of great American businesses and hold them for the long term.

A great company bought at the wrong price can lead to mediocre returns, no matter how good the business is. That’s why we set a buy-up-to price for every stock in our portfolio.

Even world-class companies can be overpriced at times, and if you pay too much, it’s tough to see great returns.

But when Mr. Market panics, he hands disciplined investors an opportunity to buy incredible businesses at discounted prices.

On the portfolio page below, you’ll find a checkmark next to stocks trading below their buy-up-to price.

Consider it your shopping list — so when the market pulls back, you know exactly what to buy.

Right now, three outstanding businesses are trading below their buy-up-to price, making them even more attractive for long-term investors:

Based on their current prices and our estimate of their businesses’ underlying worth, these three stocks offer the most compelling long-term returns right now.

Warren Buffett said, “Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results.”

Take advantage of this market pullback — opportunities like this don’t last forever.

If you have any questions, please send them my way at [email protected].

And follow me on X here for daily updates.

Regards,

Charles Mizrahi

Founder, Alpha Investor

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