SpaceX may be the most exciting IPO in years.
The company changed the economics of space launches.
It built Starlink into a massive satellite internet business. It made reusable rockets real. That is a major American achievement.
Investors are excited because SpaceX sits at the center of three huge stories. Space, artificial intelligence, and global internet access.
SpaceX is aiming to list on the Nasdaq and begin trading on June 12.
The company is expected to raise about $75 billion at roughly a $1.75 trillion valuation. That would make it the largest IPO in history.
SpaceX’s rocket launch captures American innovation at full thrust. But a great story does not always make a great investment.
I admire what SpaceX has built. I admire American ambition. I admire bold founders who take big risks.
But admiration is not an investment strategy.
SpaceX may be an incredible American company. But that does not make it a smart stock to buy at any price.
Here are three reasons I’m staying away.
The Numbers Do Not Support the Price
The company filings showed that SpaceX lost $4.9 billion on $18.7 billion of revenue last year. The company also lost $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
That is not the kind of financial profile we want in American Prosperity.
At $1.75 trillion, investors are being asked to pay for years of perfection. That leaves very little room for disappointment.
One missed launch, one regulatory setback, one Starlink slowdown, or one capital spending surprise could change the story fast.
That is not a margin of safety. That is a leap of faith.
Our Alpha-4 Approach starts with strong financials. We want businesses with clear earnings power, durable cash flow, and disciplined capital allocation.
SpaceX may become a great public company one day. But today, the IPO price already assumes greatness.
We do not want to pay tomorrow’s dream price today.
Public Investors Get Little Control
Elon Musk will retain 85% of SpaceX’s voting power. Public investors buying Class A shares would have far less influence.
That is important to know.
When you buy a stock, you become a business owner. But ownership should come with rights.
Here, public investors are being offered economic exposure without much control. They can buy the dream, but they cannot steer the spaceship.
That may be acceptable at the right price. It is much harder to accept at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
Great leadership matters. But great governance matters too.
We want management teams aligned with shareholders. We want accountability. We want owners treated like partners.
That is not what this structure appears to offer.
The IPO Game Favors Insiders
This is the part Wall Street rarely says clearly.
IPOs are often not designed for the little guy. They are designed to create liquidity.
Founders, venture capital firms, early employees, and large funds get a path to cash out. Retail investors usually enter after the best price has already been set.
The SEC says underwriters and issuers control IPO allocations. Hot IPO shares often go to favored clients, wealthy investors, and institutions.
Smaller investors may only get access after trading begins.
That is not a level playing field.
By the time Main Street gets excited, Wall Street has often already been paid.
In my 40 years on Wall Street, I have learned one lesson the hard way.
It rarely pays to buy what Wall Street is excited to sell.
The seller chooses the timing. The bankers polish the story. The public gets the excitement.
That is usually not where the bargain is found.
Note: A few years ago, I recorded a podcast with Dakin Campbell titled Avoid IPOs Like the Plague.
We discussed why IPOs are usually a bad deal for Main Street investors, and why the game is often stacked in favor of insiders, bankers, and early investors.
Why Buffett And Munger Avoided IPOs
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger understood this problem.
They did not build Berkshire Hathaway by chasing IPO excitement. They bought proven businesses when the price made sense.
Buffett said in 2019 that he was not buying the Uber IPO and that he had never bought any IPO. That tells you a lot about how he views the setup.
The seller picks the timing. The bankers build the story. The crowd brings the excitement.
That is the opposite of how serious investors should act.
Munger said successful investing means buying something worth more than you pay.
An IPO usually begins with the seller trying to get the highest possible price.
That is not our game.
Our American Prosperity Report Standard
SpaceX is a great American story.
That does not make it a great investment today.
We do not chase headlines.
Inside the American Prosperity Report, we already own a carefully selected portfolio of quality businesses built for long-term compounding. These are companies with strong financials, real cash flow, and the staying power to benefit from America’s next wave of prosperity.
We look for powerful tailwinds, exceptional leadership, strong financials, and a reasonable price.
SpaceX may have the first two. It does not yet meet the last two.
The Alpha-4 Approach has no room for IPO fever.
We want evidence, not excitement. We want cash flow, not promises. We want price discipline, not crowd pressure.
America will keep winning in space, technology, and innovation.
But our job is not to buy every exciting story.
Our job is to buy great businesses when Mr. Market gives us the right price.
SpaceX is worth watching. It’s just not worth buying at the IPO.
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Regards,
Charles Mizrahi
Prosperity Insider
